Tribalism is the greatest threat of our species in the 21st century

#tribaltheory 002: Channeling human instinct towards a path to survival

Nahlah Ayed, the host of the CBC Radio program, recently asked me in an interview: “How much of a threat do you think political tribalism is?” My response was: “It's the greatest threat to our species in the 21st century. It's something we have to figure out.”

This might sound outlandish at first, given the list of existential threats we face: Artificial Intelligence, Global Warming, Nuclear War & Bioterror, and Chaos (Supervolcanoes, Asteroid collisions, planet-engulfing solar flares).

Each of these challenges is, at its root, a collective action problem. My thesis is that the Tribe Drive—the instinctual coalitionary cognition that drives us to privilege our inter-subjective belief networks—is the base root code that predicts our species' capacity to both be vulnerable to and overcome existential challenges. Simply put, our ability to form and favor large-scale teams is simultaneously the disease and understanding this is a potential antidote.

Let’s break down the threats and how solving political tribalism can help us address them:

1. Artificial Intelligence (AI) Challenge: represents both one of the greatest advancements and one of the most significant threats to humanity. AI involves the simulation of human intelligence processes by machines, including expert systems, natural language processing (NLP), speech recognition, and machine vision. Experts fear Superintelligent Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which could surpass human intelligence in all aspects and potentially become malevolent, posing a significant threat to humanity.

   The Tribal Solution: If AI turns into super AI, some experts believe it has a high probability of becoming malevolent, potentially causing our extinction. AI could manipulate human instincts for coalitions and groupishness to divide and conquer. If multiple tribal AIs were created by different groups, the consequences could be even worse, with Tribal-AI-Gods waging war against each other, causing human casualties on an incalculable scale. Understanding and mitigating political tribalism can prevent AI from exploiting these divides.

2. Global Warming Challenge: refers to the long-term heating of Earth's climate system, primarily due to human activities such as fossil fuel burning. This phenomenon has been observed since the pre-industrial period and is characterized by increased levels of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2). The consequences include rising sea levels, extreme weather events, loss of biodiversity, and significant impacts on food and water security.

   The Tribal Solution: One of the most pervasive outcroppings of The Tribe Drive is Identity Protective Cognition, which warps our perception of veridical truth. In Our Tribal Future, I discuss how individuals process information in ways that align with their group's beliefs, even if it means distorting the truth. This cognitive bias can be seen in the climate change debate, where denial is often rooted in a need to protect group identity rather than a lack of information. Addressing climate change requires using the correct tribal signals and language to overcome these cognitive barriers and foster cooperation.

3. Nuclear War & Bioterror Challenge: pose devastating threats to humanity, with the potential for immediate mass casualties, long-term environmental damage (nuclear winter), and global political and social instability. If our species doesn't die out, we could be reduced to population levels reminiscent of the Paleolithic era.

   The Tribal Solution: Preventing nuclear war requires international cooperation, arms control agreements, and effective diplomacy. The Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 is a significant example of overcoming tribalism to create trust conditions that prevented nuclear conflict. President John F. Kennedy and Premier Nikita Khrushchev engaged in direct and secret negotiations to de-escalate the situation, leading to key agreements that reduced tensions. This crisis highlighted the necessity of establishing trust and communication channels to manage conflicts and foster cooperation.

4. Chaos Challenge: is perhaps the scariest existential threat humanity faces because it appears to be out of our control. Natural cataclysms like supervolcanoes, asteroid collisions, and planet-engulfing solar flares represent chaotic forces that could unleash devastating consequences on a global scale, potentially obliterating human civilization.

   The Tribal Solution: Certain threats require a collective response to overcome. Preparing for these potential disasters is crucial for our long-term survival and can only be accomplished through concerted efforts of multiple massive scale, super-tribal coalitions. The scale of these threats is so globally encompassing that we need to become a multiplanetary species. Solving for tribalism is not just a moral imperative; it is a practical necessity. By fostering a spirit of global cooperation, we can harness the collective power of humanity to become a multiplanetary species, doubling our odds of survival and triumphing over chaotic forces.

Tribal roots, survival shoots 

Tribal cognition, once a trait that evolved to bootstrap trust among strangers, has manifested in the 21st century as politically-tribal weapon in the hands of fearmongers, despots, and even potentially rogue AI. It is used to mobilize hate, dehumanize others, and reduce cooperation among groups, undermining our ability to perceive the truth and weakening our collective strength, making us vulnerable to existential threats. However, by channeling our tribal instincts in a positive direction, we can transform this weakness into a formidable strength.

On potential way forward is if we begin to see our entire species as a super-tribal identity, what I call a metatribe or what Harvey Whitehouse, calls a teratribe in his recent article where he writes: “...humanity’s survival may depend on us becoming a tribe of billions.” This shift in perspective is essential for addressing the myriad threats we face, from natural cataclysms to human-made disasters. The survival of our species depends on overcoming the divisive aspects of tribalism and embracing tools that reduce polarization at scale.

At the same time, we must recognize the value of small, healthy tribes thriving at the local level. These tribes can create competing subscription services and governments, preserving beautiful human variation and cultural diversity. Technologies of decentralization can protect these small groups, ensuring their autonomy and resilience.

By balancing our super-tribal identity at the species scale with vibrant local tribes, we can solve the collective action problem while celebrating human diversity.

Recognizing our shared humanity and working together as one global tribe, we can build a resilient and thriving future for all. The time to act is now, for our survival hangs in the balance.